Kosovo issue solution to affect “frozen conflict”
Is Kosovo’s independence about to be acknowledged and in what way it will reflect on the Balkans and on the countries in the post-Soviet area. FOCUS News Agency got in touch with professor Nina Dyulgerova, lecturer in Chernorizets Hrabar University in Varna and author of essays and articles about Bulgaria, the Balkans, Russia, Caucasus, and others, to comment on the issue
(Denka Katsarska, Focus News Agency) Friday, November 09, 2007
FOCUS: Professor Dyulgerova, can we draw a parallel between the situation in the Western Balkans and some of the unacknowledged "states" in the post-Soviet area?
Nina Dyulgerova: Speaking about the situation in the Western Balkans, we cannot miss to draw a parallel to the events that take place in the post-Soviet area, and especially to the "frozen conflict" phenomenon, also known as the so-called "unacknowledged countries". These are the Trans-Dniester in Moldova, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which can be considered part of them, but it is some extraordinary case and, in general, we do not automatically add it to the first three.
Up to present, Kosovo and its future turn to be the burning problem and we may say that this issue concentrates the whole political and diplomatic energy of the EU, the Balkan countries, Russia and the USA.
The Kosovo issue became really pressing over the last months. There were several attempts to solve the issue at the Security Council with the plan of Martti Ahtisaari, and then it was shifted in the frames of the diplomatic format of the Contact Group, where Russia showed another active support to Serbia. The Contact Group, chaired by German Wolfgang Ischinger, in fact tried to solve some really complex issue, which aimed at mutual consent on opinions, which were mutually incompatible. On the one hand, we have Kosovo's position, fighting for independence, strongly supported by the USA. It says that Kosovo's independence will be probably acknowledged on December 10th. This is a highly controversial stand, joining different opinions in the EU, which not all member states approve.
On the on the hand, there is Serbia, supported by Russia, and also by China, regarding the connection with the Security Council. They are explicit on the point that Kosovo's status must remain unchanged. If at present this process is a matter of Balkan countries' concern, taking into account the geopolitical and strategic plan, it also affects the post-Soviet area. Since 2003, experts and political figures form different countries have come up with different stands on the issue, which connect Kosovo's issue to the situation in Moldova, Georgia, and the argument between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The predominant opinion allows the realization of the "domino principle": if Kosovo acknowledges its independence, the so-called "frozen conflict" will also head towards some more active process for acknowledgement of the state status. Further more, formally each of the four units have all features of a state system: elections, different kings of power: president, parliament, local authorities, and etc. In this case we can speak about processes where the extrapolation is inevitable. Speaking about Western Balkans, I read an interesting article by Ulrich Beck published in 2005, where he develops a highly interesting thesis, and thus I am inclined to believe that: world processes are so dynamic that we can speak about some accumulation of Asian and European problems. Continents, and their societies and processes, start to gradate. Thus, what we witness in the Western Balkans may proceed to the European part of the post-Soviet area, in South Ossetia. Now we may speak about the so-called processes in Eurasia, where territory and latitude lose their initial meaning, as these processes are getting identical. Processes will have to be conceders in a similar manner, disregarding the details and the different geopolitical parameters.
FOCUS: Is Kosovo the key generator of instability in the Balkans? What is your personal opinion about what is going on in Macedonia over the last months - the Tanusevci issue, for instance?
Nina Dyulgerova: In this case we can use the "domino principle" - several months ago I came round to the opinion that this is going to happen. We must never forget that America is getting ready for parliamentary elections. I think that there is enough ground to believe that all the prognoses will turn true and the Democrats will assume power and replace the Republicans, who reigned over the last eight years. Remember that till 2001, the Clinton era, the Balkans and the Persian Gulf were the burning problem of US foreign policy. All processes that led to the disintegration of the Yugoslavian Republic took place in the 90s. The Kosovo crisis in 1999 was the climax of this process. On March 24th, 2001, it was for Tanusevci, the border area between Macedonia and Kososvo, then in Yugoslavia, to start the so-called Macedonian crisis. If it weren't for September 11th, the Balkans would have been seized in the latest war conflict, in which Macedonia, and more precisely the Albanian element in Macedonia, would have been the base both for the disintegration of that republic, and a key step to the establishment of Great Albania. Over the last 15 years, there is enough evidence noticed that this is an idea, which is a creation of foreign strategic interests. This did not happen. What happened in 2001 ended up at the Ohrid summit in the summer, the establishment of, let's say - the dualistic Republic of Macedonia, where the Albanians have assumed some great power.
Over the last years of the XX century I have gone there every year, and I can say that, in fact there was some unofficial, but real, parity presence of Macedonians and Albanians in all political levels. However, the Ohrid Agreement increased the Albanian presence in the government. Regarding the straightforward and gradual buy-out of lands and real estate in Western Macedonia and in the capital Skopje, we may say that that part of Macedonia is the Albanian part of the country.
FOCUS: What is the financial source for this territory buy-out in Macedonia?
Nina Dyulgerova: There are three key sources - arms, prostitution and human traffic. The sources for Albanian prosperity are drugs and arms. Over the last ten years, the Albanians living in Kosovo and Albania, as well as the Albanians who moved from Macedonia to Kosovo, especially during the Kosovo war in 1999, are involved in the huge storage of arms in the Macedonian mountains.
