The Boomerang Effect Chart

Consequences of an Unlawful Recognition of Kosovo’s Independence

THE (US-EU) SCHEDULE- Proclaim that talks have "terminally failed"
- "Creatively interpret" UN Security Council Resolution 1244
- Bypass UN SC and send EU mission to replace discredited UNMIK
- Play “sticks and carrots” with Serbia
- Unofficially apply Ahtisaari’s Plan, albeit rejected by the UN SC
- Coordinate with willing allies Kosovo’s declaration of independence
- Pressure countries to individually recognize Kosovo’s independence,
- again outside the UN
- UNSC Resolution 1244
- EU Charter, CFSP, SAA
- Helsinki Final Act
- Serbian Constitution
THE BIGGER BANG- Permanent erosion of UN/UNSC legitimacy and credibility
- Worldwide geopolitical balance upset by regional alliances, power-plays and "creative" ad hoc interpretations of international law
- Further straining of relations between Russia, the EU and the US; other players emboldened to act “unilaterally” or “in coordination with partners”
COLLATERAL DAMAGE- EU deploys a costly state-building mission; "EU unity" gradually crumbles following cost-benefit analyses of such an action
- The Balkans enters a new cycle of tension, regional accords crumble
- Direct impetus for violent separatist aspirations in dozens of similarly "unique" hotspots worldwide, despite the "now-and-never-again" rhetoric
Kurdistan (attacks by Turkish military), Western Sahara (talks continue at UN, 16 years after the end of the conflict), Abkhasia (controversial elections), Taiwan (pro-independence parties lose), Basque Country (new ETA incidents) …
SERBIA’S REACTIONS- Refuses blurry fast-track to EU membership in exchange for giving up on Kosovo
- Rejects and proclaims illegitimate any interpretation of 1244 that leads to the recognition of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence
- Summons UN Security Council to challenge the legitimacy of Kosovo’s declaration of independence before the International Court of Justice
- Sues governments which recognize Kosovo’s independence, reviews diplomatic and economic ties with those countries
- Starts a series of counter-measures against a breakaway Kosovo, including soft to total energy, commerce and travel embargo
- Continues to push for renewed negotiations without artificial deadlines or pre-determined solutions
"We will leave no stones unturned"We will say at the end: "We have left no
stones unturned…"
Solution is impossible in the UN Security Council, therefore US and EU must take matters into their own handsThe US and EU have undermined talks from the very beginning, lamented upon their failure, then showed ‘great moral responsibility and political sacrifice’ in solving the problem... the way they wanted
“A creative interpretation of UN SC
Resolution 1244 allows us to…”
There are no legal grounds for doing what
we are doing, but “we must preserve at
least a semblance of international law”
(Carl Bildt)
“Kosovo is a unique case”We don’t know how to get out of this mess
and we pray it never happens again
:Coordinated Declaration of Independence” (CDI)“Coalition of the Willing” - Part II
“You are either with us or you’re with Russia”We have no answers to well-elaborated criticisms of Ahtisaari’s Plan
The EU will have a common policy, but recognition of Kosovo’s UDI/CDI will be left to national parliamentsBye bye EU founding documents, values and principles
EU unity must be displayed at all costs; EU countries opposing independence are expected to “constructively disagree”Some EU members are less equal than others
“De facto reality on the ground must be taken into account...”Some instances of ethnic cleansing are more acceptable than others
Kosovo must move on, otherwise there will be troubleOur fear of Albanian extremism is greater than the need for a compromise solution