The Day After Tomorrow Chart

Serb-Albanian relations in the aftermath of the status talks

General type of relationsClearly defined procedural mechanismsNo formal contact between Kosovo and Serbia Procedural dead-end
Freedom of movementFree movement of people No right of passage to anyone holding documents issued in Kosovo or entering central Serbia from Kosovo
Freedom of capitalIncreased domestic and international trade, no obstacle to investments Possible trade embargo against Kosovo, against countries which recognize its independence and against any company which operates in Kosovo
Economic growthSerbia can help bring FDI by extending Kosovo’s market; it can boost Kosovo’s exports thanks to its trade preferences with RussiaNegative
Foreign investmentClean transparent mechanismsRisky business
Taxes / Free trade Own taxation systemDouble taxation and customs
MarketSingle market with preferences going to the Kosovo sideRupture between two naturally interconnected markets
PrivatizationReview of privatization process clears legal obstacles to investmentsInternational legal challenge to controversial privatization measures
Fiscal policyHarmonization on state level as part of EU-preparationComplete separation
Parliamentary representation of K/Albanians in BelgradeFull participation in Serbian parliamentNo Kosovo Albanians in Serbian parliament
Parliamentary representation of K/Serbs in PristinaFull participation in Kosovo parliamentTotal boycott of parliamentary life
Access to international institutionsFinance, culture, sports almost independentlySerbia will challenge Kosovo’s access to any international institution
Access to international sports sceneIndependent access to certain financial, cultural, sports institutionsChallenged by Serbia and countries opposed to Kosovo’s independence
European integrationAccelerated. Can fully take control of EU integration. EU CFSP maintained in face of difficult issue. Stable EU front yard. Influence on both Belgrade and Pristina maintained.Blocked. Instability in EU front yard. Problems with EU unity. Belgrade as most important player in region angry and frustrated.
Regional integrationFluidBlocked
Return of IDPsAccelerated. Remaining non-Albanians stay at home in Kosovo. IDPs return. Multiethnicity of Kosovo guaranteed.None. On the contrary, mass exodus of remaining Kosovo Serbs. No return. Ethnically pure state.
DecentralizationNo interference from BelgradeEthnic division
Border controlInternational troops and multiethnic policeBorders sealed