The Troika Chart
Comparative interests of the 3 big players moderating the negotiations
| USA | RUSSIA | EU | |
| Reliable partners | ALB | SRB | ALB+SRB |
| Strategic Motivations | Justify 1999 military intervention, present Kosovo as ‘success story' | Demystify US interventionism, return to multipolar world | Assert stability in Balkans with aim of EU integration |
| Geopolitical Motive | Confirm US supremacy & interventionism | Reemerge as world power | Assure EU's unity, confirm CFSP credibility, assert proactive role |
| Basis for acceptable solution | Ad hoc criteria / Pax Americana | Universal principles / International Law | Anything via UNSC |
| Suggested solution from the pov of international law | Independence , one way or another | Everything on which both sides agree | Agreement desired, if not… |
| If unilateral declaration of independence | Unilateral recognition | No UN approval Unilateral reaction in other crisis regions | Internal division; pulling out from joint mission |
| Precedent | Not a precedent | Precedent indeed | Precedent, but not a precedent |
| Tactical mistake | Underestimated Russia | Late involvement in status process | Premature alignment with US |
| Wishful Thinking | - Close "the Albanian question" - Kosovo is "successful state-building project", an example for Iraq and Afghanistan - Disengage US troops | - Force US to step back from publicly stated commitment to Kosovo's independence- Use Kosovo as model for solving ex-USSR Russian-minority issues - ‘Savior of international law' image | - Form common EU policy; "constructive abstentions of dissident members" - Remain neutral in US-Russian geopolitical wrestling- Keep good relations with Serbs & Albanians at the same time |
| Pressure tools | Unilateral action | Ossetia, Abkhasia, Transdniestria Energy policy | Blocking European integration, cutting aid funds |
| Catalyst for compromise | Pressure on Albanians | No hot stirring in ex-USSR | Conditioning EU perspective with Serb-Albanian agreement |
| Conscience problem | Post-war failures in Iraq, Kosovo | Stood aside during 1999 bombing of Serbia | Chronic lack of determination |
| Consistency problems | Pro-autonomy in Georgia, Western Sahara, Moldova … | Pro-independence in Russian minority areas outside Russia | Pro-autonomy for Catalonia, Basque Country, Georgia… |
| Secondary agenda | Tactical military presence. | Energy pathways | Readmission of Kosovo refugees and organized crime members |
